{"locations":[{"code":"AGO","name":"Angola","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/angola/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.77 in 1950 → 5.12 in 2023 (−11%). Peak: 7.50 in 1974; the latest value is 32% lower. The trend broke around 1969 and 1987: +0.09 → 0 → −0.06 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.771,"last":5.124,"peak":{"year":1974,"value":7.5},"breaks":[{"year":1969,"slope_before":0.0875,"slope_after":-0.000381},{"year":1987,"slope_before":-0.000381,"slope_after":-0.0608}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 202k in 1950 → 1.38M in 2023 (×6.9). The trend broke around 1976: change sped up (+4.78k → +17.3k a year).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":201.6,"last":1381,"breaks":[{"year":1976,"slope_before":4.78,"slope_after":17.3}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 40.7% in 2024 (+41 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2013. Fastest growth in 2010–2015: 2.8% → 22%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":40.7048,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2013,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2010,"to":2015,"start":2.8,"end":22}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 10.4% in 1960 → 71.5% in 2025 (+61 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 2000. The trend broke around 1974 and 2003: +0.47 → +1.3 → +0.76 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":10.3871,"last":71.4616,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":2000,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1974,"slope_before":0.467,"slope_after":1.31},{"year":2003,"slope_before":1.31,"slope_after":0.764}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 8,366 PPP dollars in 1990 → 8,760 PPP dollars in 2025 (+5%). Peak: 11,718 PPP dollars in 2014; the latest value is 25% lower. The trend broke around 1996 and 2012: −414 → +394 → −284 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":8366.4127,"last":8760.1908,"peak":{"year":2014,"value":11718.4287},"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":-414,"slope_after":394},{"year":2012,"slope_before":394,"slope_after":-284}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 2012–2022: 6.04 → 5.21. Over the same years: births 1.1M → 1.36M; internet 7.7% → 35.8%; urban share 61.5% → 69.1%; GDP per person (PPP) 11,517 PPP dollars → 8,751 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2012,"to":2022,"start":6.039,"end":5.209,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2012,"to":2022,"start":1098,"end":1358},{"id":"internet_users","from":2012,"to":2022,"start":7.7,"end":35.838},{"id":"urban_population","from":2012,"to":2022,"start":61.5114,"end":69.0506},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2012,"to":2022,"start":11516.8133,"end":8750.9936}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.67); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.11).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.674,"r_changes":0.107,"effective_pairs_changes":8,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 29 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.94); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.38). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":29,"r_levels":-0.94,"r_changes":-0.379,"effective_pairs_changes":13,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.84); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.68). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.845,"r_changes":-0.676,"effective_pairs_changes":3,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.59); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.47).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.592,"r_changes":0.472,"effective_pairs_changes":12,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (8,598 PPP dollars) typically have 2.61; here it is 5.12, higher than in 99% of countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":8598,"yv":5.124,"expected":2.61,"pct":99,"lower":195,"higher":1,"z":2.54}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (8,753 PPP dollars) typically have 60.7%; here it is 40.7%, lower than in 97% of countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":8753,"yv":40.7,"expected":60.7,"pct":3,"lower":5,"higher":171,"z":-1.79}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 4; median gap −0.5%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.592,"actual":5.5639,"gap_pct":21.17},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.04,"actual":5.5639,"gap_pct":-7.88},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.07,"actual":5.5639,"gap_pct":-8.34},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.611,"actual":5.5639,"gap_pct":-0.84},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.611,"actual":5.5639,"gap_pct":-0.84},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.828,"actual":5.5639,"gap_pct":15.24},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.535,"actual":5.5639,"gap_pct":22.69},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.418,"actual":5.5639,"gap_pct":2.69},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.79,"actual":5.5639,"gap_pct":-3.91},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.589,"actual":5.5639,"gap_pct":-0.45},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":5.124,"actual":5.124,"gap_pct":0}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":4,"median_gap_pct":-0.45,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (5.12) already around 2012: reality is 11 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":5.124,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2012,"year_expected_by":null,"years":11,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (5.12, 2023) only by 2025–2030: reality is at least 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":5.124,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"year_expected_by":2030,"years":2,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 3.24 (−37% vs 2023), 2100 — 2.14 (−58% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.64.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":5.124},"values":{"2050":3.242,"2100":2.141},"low_2100":1.641}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 2 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 9; median gap +27%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":783.512,"actual":1241.3,"gap_pct":58.43},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1016.212,"actual":1241.3,"gap_pct":22.15},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":952.959,"actual":1241.3,"gap_pct":30.26},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":964.732,"actual":1241.3,"gap_pct":28.67},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":977.923,"actual":1241.3,"gap_pct":26.93},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":885.482,"actual":1241.3,"gap_pct":40.18},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":858.582,"actual":1241.3,"gap_pct":44.58},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1027.691,"actual":1241.3,"gap_pct":20.79},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1189.738,"actual":1241.3,"gap_pct":4.33},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1247.959,"actual":1241.3,"gap_pct":-0.53},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1381.742,"actual":1381,"gap_pct":-0.05}],"actual_lower":2,"actual_higher":9,"median_gap_pct":26.93,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected today's level (1.38M, 2023) only after 2035: reality is at least 12 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1381,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2035,"year_expected_by":2050,"years":12,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected this level (1.38M) already around 2022: reality is 1 year behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1381,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2022,"year_expected_by":null,"years":1,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.01M (+45% vs 2023), 2100 — 2.34M (+70% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.24M.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1381},"values":{"2050":2008,"2100":2342},"low_2100":1237}}]},{"id":"wars","title":"Wars and births","items":[{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1961–1962 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 11 thousand battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Togo, Botswana, Tanzania, Zambia, Costa Rica and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war −3%, 1–5 years after it −9.5%, 6–10 years after −20%; fertility (children per woman) during the war −0.05, 1–5 years after it −0.12, 6–10 years after −0.21.","data":{"episode":"AGO-1961","kind":"modern","from":1961,"to":1962,"battle_deaths":11284,"peers":["TGO","BWA","TZA","ZMB","CRI","ECU","SEN","MEX","MLI","LBR"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":-2.96,"own":-2.57,"years":2},"p1_5":{"gap":-9.49,"own":-8.51,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-19.51,"own":-18.01,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":-0.053,"own":-0.048,"years":2},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.115,"own":-0.105,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-0.207,"own":-0.282,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":-1.27,"own":-1.23,"years":2},"p1_5":{"gap":-3.6,"own":-3.57,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-8.14,"own":-8.65,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1975–1994 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 107 thousand battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Zambia, Malawi, Mongolia, Benin, Jordan and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war +16%; fertility (children per woman) during the war −0.02. The war lasted more than 10 years: its first 10 years are compared, the years after it are not (the pre-war trend is too old).","data":{"episode":"AGO-1975","kind":"modern","from":1975,"to":1994,"battle_deaths":106627,"peers":["ZMB","MWI","MNG","BEN","JOR","SWZ","HND","BWA","NAM","ARE"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":15.66,"own":17.42,"years":10}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":-0.018,"own":-0.332,"years":10}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":3.59,"own":2.57,"years":10}}}}},{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1998–2001 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 5,435 battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Burkina Faso, Malawi, Benin, Zambia, Madagascar and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war +1%, 1–5 years after it +3.3%, 6–10 years after +5.9%; fertility (children per woman) during the war +0.05, 1–5 years after it +0.11, 6–10 years after +0.10.","data":{"episode":"AGO-1998","kind":"modern","from":1998,"to":2001,"battle_deaths":5435,"peers":["BFA","MWI","BEN","ZMB","MDG","GNQ","MOZ","GMB","TZA","TGO"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":0.98,"own":0.49,"years":4},"p1_5":{"gap":3.33,"own":3.41,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":5.94,"own":6.36,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":0.05,"own":0.042,"years":4},"p1_5":{"gap":0.111,"own":0.176,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":0.101,"own":0.27,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":0.72,"own":0.23,"years":4},"p1_5":{"gap":1.42,"own":1.36,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":1.49,"own":1.82,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births_all","indicators":["births"],"source":"wars","text":"All wars together: of 101 wars on countries' territory since 1955, births 1–5 years after the end were above comparable peace-time countries in 42% of cases (median −1.6%). No significant post-war rise shows up.","data":{"episodes":101,"median_gap_pct":-1.56,"share_above":0.416,"sign_test_p":0.1109}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=AGO&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}