{"locations":[{"code":"KOR","name":"South Korea","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/south-korea/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"house_prices_real","title":"Real house prices","unit":"index, 2010 = 100"},{"id":"marriage_rate","title":"Crude marriage rate","unit":"marriages per 1,000 people"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.06 in 1950 → 0.80 in 2025 (−87%). Low: 0.72 in 2023; +11% since then. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1984, below 1.5 since 1998, below 1.0 since 2018. The trend broke around 1958 and 1985: +0.01 → −0.16 → −0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":6.063,"last":0.8,"trough":{"year":2023,"value":0.72},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1984,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":1998,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1,"year":2018,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1958,"slope_before":0.0139,"slope_after":-0.164},{"year":1985,"slope_before":-0.164,"slope_after":-0.0245}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["house_prices_real"],"text":"Real house prices: 66.4 in 1975 → 105.8 in 2025 (+59%). Peak: 147 in 1991; the latest value is 28% lower. The trend broke around 1991 and 1998: +3.8 → −7.4 → +1.1 a year.","data":{"indicator":"house_prices_real","from":1975,"to":2025,"first":66.36,"last":105.79,"peak":{"year":1991,"value":147},"breaks":[{"year":1991,"slope_before":3.82,"slope_after":-7.39},{"year":1998,"slope_before":-7.39,"slope_after":1.06}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["marriage_rate"],"text":"Marriages per 1,000: 9.07 per 1,000 in 1970 → 4.65 per 1,000 in 2025 (−49%). Peak: 10.57 per 1,000 in 1980; the latest value is 56% lower. The trend broke around 1976 and 1982: +0.01 → +0.42 → −0.15 a year.","data":{"indicator":"marriage_rate","from":1970,"to":2025,"first":9.069,"last":4.651,"peak":{"year":1980,"value":10.567},"breaks":[{"year":1976,"slope_before":0.0117,"slope_after":0.421},{"year":1982,"slope_before":0.421,"slope_after":-0.15}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","house_prices_real","marriage_rate"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1968–1978: 4.51 → 2.70. Over the same years: real house prices 115.2 (1978); marriages per 1,000 9.2 per 1,000 (1978).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1968,"to":1978,"start":4.51,"end":2.7,"others":[{"id":"house_prices_real","year":1978,"value":115.17},{"id":"marriage_rate","year":1978,"value":9.2}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","house_prices_real","marriage_rate"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): fertility (TFR) 1.20 → 0.80; real house prices 103 → 105.8; marriages per 1,000 5.94 per 1,000 → 4.65 per 1,000.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.202,"end":0.8,"others":[{"id":"house_prices_real","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":102.98,"end":105.79},{"id":"marriage_rate","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":5.94,"end":4.651}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","house_prices_real"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and real house prices (1975–2025, 51 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.28); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = −0.37).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"house_prices_real","from":1975,"to":2025,"years":51,"r_levels":-0.282,"r_changes":-0.369,"effective_pairs_changes":29,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","marriage_rate"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and marriages per 1,000 (1970–2025, 56 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.50); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.18).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"marriage_rate","from":1970,"to":2025,"years":56,"r_levels":0.505,"r_changes":0.178,"effective_pairs_changes":46,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (54,030 PPP dollars) typically have 1.39; here it is 0.72, lower than in 99% of countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":54030,"yv":0.72,"expected":1.39,"pct":1,"lower":1,"higher":195,"z":-2.46}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Order of events: fertility below 3: 1977; fertility below 2.1: 1984.","data":{"events":{"tfr3":{"year":1977,"censored":false},"tfr21":{"year":1984,"censored":false}},"orders":[]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −45%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":0.7678,"gap_pct":-59.59},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.869,"actual":0.7678,"gap_pct":-58.92},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.522,"actual":0.7678,"gap_pct":-49.55},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.415,"actual":0.7678,"gap_pct":-45.74},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.285,"actual":0.7678,"gap_pct":-40.25},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.335,"actual":0.7678,"gap_pct":-42.49},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.56,"actual":0.7678,"gap_pct":-50.78},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.458,"actual":0.7678,"gap_pct":-47.34},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.393,"actual":0.7678,"gap_pct":-44.88},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.399,"actual":0.7678,"gap_pct":-45.12},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.075,"actual":0.7678,"gap_pct":-28.58},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":0.905,"actual":0.8,"gap_pct":-11.6}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-45.43,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.03 (+28% vs 2025), 2100 — 1.30 (+62% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 0.80.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":0.8},"values":{"2050":1.026,"2100":1.296},"low_2100":0.796}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=KOR&i=tfr,house_prices_real,marriage_rate&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}