{"locations":[{"code":"USA","name":"United States","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/united-states/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"shiller_cape","title":"US CAPE: latest month","unit":"ratio"},{"id":"shiller_tr_cape","title":"US total-return CAPE","unit":"ratio"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["shiller_cape"],"text":"US CAPE: latest month: 11.31 ratio in 1950 → 40.71 ratio in 2026 (×3.6). Low: 7.83 ratio in 1981; ×5.2 since then. The trend broke around 1985 and 1997: −0.22 → +1.4 → +0.14 a year.","data":{"indicator":"shiller_cape","from":1950,"to":2026,"first":11.3067,"last":40.7106,"trough":{"year":1981,"value":7.8326},"breaks":[{"year":1985,"slope_before":-0.225,"slope_after":1.38},{"year":1997,"slope_before":1.38,"slope_after":0.14}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["shiller_tr_cape"],"text":"US total-return CAPE: 14.51 ratio in 1950 → 43.33 ratio in 2026 (×3). Low: 9.79 ratio in 1974; ×4.4 since then. The trend broke around 1965 and 1975: +0.78 → −1.4 → +0.51 a year.","data":{"indicator":"shiller_tr_cape","from":1950,"to":2026,"first":14.5086,"last":43.3281,"trough":{"year":1974,"value":9.7895},"breaks":[{"year":1965,"slope_before":0.783,"slope_after":-1.42},{"year":1975,"slope_before":-1.42,"slope_after":0.514}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["shiller_cape","shiller_tr_cape"],"text":"The fastest rise of \"US CAPE: latest month\" was in 1989–1999: 17.65 ratio → 44.2 ratio. Over the same years: US total-return CAPE 21.15 ratio → 48.11 ratio.","data":{"focus":"shiller_cape","from":1989,"to":1999,"start":17.6502,"end":44.1979,"others":[{"id":"shiller_tr_cape","from":1989,"to":1999,"start":21.1549,"end":48.111}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["shiller_cape","shiller_tr_cape"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2016–2026): US CAPE: latest month 27.87 ratio → 40.71 ratio; US total-return CAPE 30.59 ratio → 43.33 ratio.","data":{"focus":"shiller_cape","from":2016,"to":2026,"start":27.8651,"end":40.7106,"others":[{"id":"shiller_tr_cape","from":2016,"to":2026,"start":30.5861,"end":43.3281}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["shiller_cape","shiller_tr_cape"],"text":"US CAPE: latest month and US total-return CAPE (1950–2026, 77 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 1.00); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 1.00). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"shiller_cape","b":"shiller_tr_cape","from":1950,"to":2026,"years":77,"r_levels":0.997,"r_changes":0.998,"effective_pairs_changes":52,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"markets","title":"Markets: growth, falls and valuations","items":[{"kind":"market_dated_month","indicators":["shiller_cape"],"text":"The last selected point is 2026-10, the latest published month for that year, not a full-year average. Monthly observations and their source flags are available in the detailed dataset.","data":{"period":"2026-10","quality":"partial_month","value":40.7106}},{"kind":"market_dated_month","indicators":["shiller_tr_cape"],"text":"The last selected point is 2026-10, the latest published month for that year, not a full-year average. Monthly observations and their source flags are available in the detailed dataset.","data":{"period":"2026-10","quality":"partial_month","value":43.3281}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=USA&i=shiller_cape,shiller_tr_cape&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}