{"locations":[{"code":"un-900","name":"World","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/world/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"population","title":"Population","unit":"thousand persons, 1 July"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"median_age","title":"Median age","unit":"years"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["population"],"text":"Population: 2.49B in 1950 → 8.09B in 2023 (×3.2).","data":{"indicator":"population","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":2493093,"last":8091735}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 91.8M in 1950 → 132M in 2023 (+44%). The trend broke around 1985 and 2017: +1.14M → +219k → −2.04M a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":91824,"last":132110,"breaks":[{"year":1985,"slope_before":1140,"slope_after":219},{"year":2017,"slope_before":219,"slope_after":-2040}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["median_age"],"text":"Median age: 22.2 years in 1950 → 30.4 years in 2023 (+8.2 years). Low: 20.3 years in 1969; +10 years since then. Threshold: above 30 years since 2022. The trend broke around 1971: direction reversed (−0.1 → +0.14 a year).","data":{"indicator":"median_age","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":22.2,"last":30.4,"trough":{"year":1969,"value":20.3},"thresholds":[{"threshold":30,"year":2022,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1971,"slope_before":-0.102,"slope_after":0.138}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["population","births","median_age"],"text":"The fastest rise of \"Population\" was in 1983–1993: 4.7B → 5.59B. Over the same years: births 132M → 136M; median age 21.8 years → 23.5 years.","data":{"focus":"population","from":1983,"to":1993,"start":4697328,"end":5591545,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1983,"to":1993,"start":131968,"end":135632},{"id":"median_age","from":1983,"to":1993,"start":21.8,"end":23.5}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["population","births","median_age"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): population 7.29B → 8.09B; births 145M → 132M; median age 27.8 years → 30.4 years.","data":{"focus":"population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":7291794,"end":8091735,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":145015,"end":132110},{"id":"median_age","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":27.8,"end":30.4}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["population","births"],"text":"Population and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.85); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.09). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"population","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.853,"r_changes":0.088,"effective_pairs_changes":55,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["population","median_age"],"text":"Population and median age (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.92); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.20). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"population","b":"median_age","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.918,"r_changes":0.197,"effective_pairs_changes":18,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["population"],"source":"wpp","text":"Population: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 12; median gap +2.7%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":7698505.604,"actual":8091735,"gap_pct":5.11},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":7796153.302,"actual":8091735,"gap_pct":3.79},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":7730925.824,"actual":8091735,"gap_pct":4.67},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":7778361.344,"actual":8091735,"gap_pct":4.03},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":7877177.651,"actual":8091735,"gap_pct":2.72},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":7881581.907,"actual":8091735,"gap_pct":2.67},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":7867733.981,"actual":8091735,"gap_pct":2.85},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":7939876.856,"actual":8091735,"gap_pct":1.91},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":7991396.961,"actual":8091735,"gap_pct":1.26},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":8032487.475,"actual":8091735,"gap_pct":0.74},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":8031800.338,"actual":8091735,"gap_pct":0.75},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":8045311.448,"actual":8091735,"gap_pct":0.58}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":12,"median_gap_pct":2.7,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["population"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected today's level (8.09B, 2023) only by 2030: reality is at least 7 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":8091735,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2030,"year_expected_by":2030,"years":7,"projection_end":2030}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["population"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (8.09B, 2023) only by 2024: reality is at least 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":8091735,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"year_expected_by":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["population"],"source":"wpp","text":"Population: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 9.66B (+19% vs 2023), 2100 — 10.2B (+26% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 6.99B.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":8091735},"values":{"2050":9664379,"2100":10180161},"low_2100":6986814}},{"kind":"forecast_split","indicators":["population"],"source":"wpp","text":"Why the UN missed the population. The 1998 projection for 2023: 7.7B; the UN's 2024 estimate: 8.09B (+5.1%). Parts of the gap (plus means more people than projected): the starting population +92.5M, births +264M, deaths +40.2M (fewer deaths than expected), migration 0; the largest: births.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","base_year":1995,"year":2023,"expected":7698505.6,"actual":8091735,"gap":393229.4,"gap_pct":5.11,"start":92518.8,"births":264228.8,"deaths":40155.5,"migration":0,"residual":-3673.6,"start_expected":5666360.2,"start_actual":5758879,"births_expected":3620539.2,"births_actual":3884768,"deaths_expected":1592069.4,"deaths_actual":1551913.9,"migration_expected":0,"migration_actual":0,"main":"births","unit":"thousand persons","note":"gap = start + births + deaths + migration + residual; deaths: minus means more deaths than assumed"}},{"kind":"forecast_split","indicators":["population"],"source":"wpp","text":"Why the UN missed the population. The 2010 projection for 2023: 7.87B; the UN's 2024 estimate: 8.09B (+2.9%). Parts of the gap (plus means more people than projected): the starting population +126M, births +73.1M, deaths +28.4M (fewer deaths than expected), migration 0; the largest: the starting population.","data":{"release":"wpp2010","base_year":2010,"year":2023,"expected":7867734,"actual":8091735,"gap":224001,"gap_pct":2.85,"start":125843,"births":73059.4,"deaths":28434.1,"migration":0,"residual":-3335.5,"start_expected":6895889,"start_actual":7021732,"births_expected":1757253.6,"births_actual":1830313,"deaths_expected":788744.3,"deaths_actual":760310.2,"migration_expected":0,"migration_actual":0,"main":"start","unit":"thousand persons","note":"gap = start + births + deaths + migration + residual; deaths: minus means more deaths than assumed"}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +3.5%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":129555.983,"actual":141382.6,"gap_pct":9.13},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":136228.727,"actual":141382.6,"gap_pct":3.78},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":135474.058,"actual":141382.6,"gap_pct":4.36},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":136557.92,"actual":141382.6,"gap_pct":3.53},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":137419.755,"actual":141382.6,"gap_pct":2.88},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":136471.676,"actual":141382.6,"gap_pct":3.6},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":135396.344,"actual":141382.6,"gap_pct":4.42},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":138963.967,"actual":141382.6,"gap_pct":1.74},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":140625.286,"actual":141382.6,"gap_pct":0.54},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":140891.616,"actual":141382.6,"gap_pct":0.35},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":134279.612,"actual":132110,"gap_pct":-1.62}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":3.53,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 133M (0% vs 2023), 2100 — 110M (−17% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 48.4M.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":132110},"values":{"2050":132555,"2100":110028},"low_2100":48407}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=WLD&i=population,births,median_age&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}