{"locations":[{"code":"DEU","name":"Germany","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/germany/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"net_migration","title":"Net migration","unit":"thousand persons per year"},{"id":"refugees_hosted","title":"Refugees hosted","unit":"thousand persons, end of year"},{"id":"migrant_share","title":"International migrants, share","unit":"% of population"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["net_migration"],"text":"Net migration: on average −126k a year in the 1950s, 197k a year in the 1960s, 98.6k a year in the 1970s, 193k a year in the 1980s, 311k a year in the 1990s, 48.2k a year in the 2000s, 455k a year in the 2010s, 526k a year in the 2020s.","data":{"indicator":"net_migration","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":-628,"last":610,"decades":[{"decade":1950,"mean":-126,"years":10},{"decade":1960,"mean":196.83,"years":10},{"decade":1970,"mean":98.6,"years":10},{"decade":1980,"mean":193.26,"years":10},{"decade":1990,"mean":311.03,"years":10},{"decade":2000,"mean":48.15,"years":10},{"decade":2010,"mean":454.6,"years":10},{"decade":2020,"mean":526.25,"years":4}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["refugees_hosted"],"text":"Refugees hosted: 265k in 1951 → 2.66M in 2025 (×10). Low: 83.5k in 1978; ×32 since then. The trend broke around 2002 and 2015: +20.1k → −51.7k → +250k a year.","data":{"indicator":"refugees_hosted","from":1951,"to":2025,"first":265,"last":2655.191,"trough":{"year":1978,"value":83.5},"breaks":[{"year":2002,"slope_before":20.1,"slope_after":-51.7},{"year":2015,"slope_before":-51.7,"slope_after":250}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["migrant_share"],"text":"Migrant share: 8.7% in 1990 → 19.8% in 2024 (+11 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 1995.","data":{"indicator":"migrant_share","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":8.732,"last":19.8103,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1995,"direction":"above"}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["net_migration","refugees_hosted"],"text":"Net migration and refugees hosted (1951–2023, 73 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.36); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.11).","data":{"a":"net_migration","b":"refugees_hosted","from":1951,"to":2023,"years":73,"r_levels":0.363,"r_changes":0.106,"effective_pairs_changes":72,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["net_migration","migrant_share"],"text":"Net migration and migrant share: too few common years with data (7) to speak of a relationship.","data":{"a":"net_migration","b":"migrant_share","years":7}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["net_migration"],"source":"wpp","text":"Net migration: past UN projections. The outcome was above the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and below in none; median difference +422k a year. The biggest miss: the 2012 revision expected 90k a year for 2020–2025; the outcome was 572k a year (for the years of the period so far).","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":200,"actual":572.4286,"gap":372.429,"unit":"k","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":180,"actual":572.4286,"gap":392.429,"unit":"k","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":211,"actual":572.4286,"gap":361.429,"unit":"k","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":200,"actual":572.4286,"gap":372.429,"unit":"k","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":150,"actual":572.4286,"gap":422.429,"unit":"k","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":110,"actual":572.4286,"gap":462.429,"unit":"k","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":110,"actual":572.4286,"gap":462.429,"unit":"k","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":90,"actual":572.4286,"gap":482.429,"unit":"k","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":150,"actual":572.4286,"gap":422.429,"unit":"k","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":200,"actual":572.4286,"gap":372.429,"unit":"k","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":144.5,"actual":572.4286,"gap":427.929,"unit":"k","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":155.751,"actual":610,"gap":454.249,"unit":"k","coverage":1}],"actual_higher":12,"actual_lower":0,"median_gap":422.429,"unit":"k","worst":{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":90,"actual":572.4286,"gap":482.429,"unit":"k","coverage":0.7},"gap":"actual − expected in the indicator unit; the latest checked period of each revision; coverage < 1: the period is not over and is compared with the years so far"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["net_migration"],"source":"wpp","text":"Net migration: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2030 — 163k a year, 2050 — 179k a year, 2100 — 141k a year.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","values":{"2030":163,"2050":179,"2100":141}}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["net_migration"],"source":"europop","text":"Net migration: Eurostat projections (EUROPOP). For the latest year with data the outcome was below the projection in 1 of 6 editions (2013–2025) and above in 5; median gap +167k a year. The biggest miss: EUROPOP2013 expected 231k a year for 2024; the outcome was 494k a year.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"europop2013","year":2024,"expected":230.513,"actual":494.274,"gap":263.761,"unit":"k","actual_source":"migr_imm8 - migr_emi2"},{"release":"europop2015","year":2024,"expected":281.047,"actual":494.274,"gap":213.227,"unit":"k","actual_source":"migr_imm8 - migr_emi2"},{"release":"europop2019","year":2024,"expected":249.946,"actual":494.274,"gap":244.328,"unit":"k","actual_source":"migr_imm8 - migr_emi2"},{"release":"europop2023","year":2024,"expected":414.255,"actual":494.274,"gap":80.019,"unit":"k","actual_source":"migr_imm8 - migr_emi2"},{"release":"europop_stp2024","year":2024,"expected":676.922,"actual":494.274,"gap":-182.648,"unit":"k","actual_source":"migr_imm8 - migr_emi2"},{"release":"europop_stp2025","year":2024,"expected":373.959,"actual":494.274,"gap":120.315,"unit":"k","actual_source":"migr_imm8 - migr_emi2"}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":5,"median_gap":166.771,"unit":"k","gap":"actual − expected in the indicator unit","facts":"Eurostat (demo_find, demo_gind, demo_mlexpec; net migration: immigrants minus emigrants where published)"}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=DEU&i=net_migration,refugees_hosted,migrant_share&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}