{"locations":[{"code":"USA","name":"United States","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/united-states/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"market_cap_gdp","title":"Stock market capitalisation / GDP","unit":"% of GDP"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["market_cap_gdp"],"text":"Stock market capitalisation / GDP: 41.77 % of GDP in 1975 → 224.04 % of GDP in 2025 (+182 pp). Low: 36.65 % of GDP in 1978; +187 pp since then. The trend broke around 2004 and 2010: +3.9 → −4.8 → +7 a year.","data":{"indicator":"market_cap_gdp","from":1975,"to":2025,"first":41.7709,"last":224.0446,"trough":{"year":1978,"value":36.6543},"breaks":[{"year":2004,"slope_before":3.95,"slope_after":-4.78},{"year":2010,"slope_before":-4.78,"slope_after":7.03}]}}]},{"id":"markets","title":"Markets: growth, falls and valuations","items":[{"kind":"market_valuation_context","indicators":["market_cap_gdp"],"text":"In 2025, listed domestic equity capitalisation was 224% of GDP. 100% of the 51 observed years in the selected window were at or below that level. This describes history, not a crash probability. The ratio also changes with listings, foreign revenues and GDP; it is not P/E or proof of a bubble.","data":{"year":2025,"value":224.0446,"observed_years":51,"empirical_percentile_in_window":100}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=USA&i=market_cap_gdp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}