{"locations":[{"code":"USA","name":"США","page":"https://macroscope.is/ru/country/ssha/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"life_expectancy_male","title":"Ожидаемая продолжительность жизни, мужчины","unit":"лет"},{"id":"life_expectancy_female","title":"Ожидаемая продолжительность жизни, женщины","unit":"лет"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"Как менялись показатели","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["life_expectancy_male"],"text":"Продолжительность жизни мужчин: 65,4 года в 1950 → 76,9 года в 2023 (+11,5 года). Порог: выше 70 лет — с 1979. Переломы тренда около 1968 и 2012 года: +0,07 → +0,22 → −0,13 в год.","data":{"indicator":"life_expectancy_male","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":65.4,"last":76.9,"thresholds":[{"threshold":70,"year":1979,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1968,"slope_before":0.0727,"slope_after":0.216},{"year":2012,"slope_before":0.216,"slope_after":-0.126}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["life_expectancy_female"],"text":"Продолжительность жизни женщин: 71 год в 1950 → 81,8 года в 2023 (+10,8 года). Порог: выше 80 лет — с 2022. Переломы тренда около 1983 и 2014 года: +0,2 → +0,11 → −0,06 в год.","data":{"indicator":"life_expectancy_female","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":71,"last":81.8,"thresholds":[{"threshold":80,"year":2022,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1983,"slope_before":0.204,"slope_after":0.107},{"year":2014,"slope_before":0.107,"slope_after":-0.0602}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"Что менялось одновременно","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["life_expectancy_male","life_expectancy_female"],"text":"Самый быстрый рост показателя «Продолжительность жизни мужчин» — в 1973–1983: 67,6 года → 71 год. В эти же годы: продолжительность жизни женщин 75,3 года → 78,1 года.","data":{"focus":"life_expectancy_male","from":1973,"to":1983,"start":67.6,"end":71,"others":[{"id":"life_expectancy_female","from":1973,"to":1983,"start":75.3,"end":78.1}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["life_expectancy_male","life_expectancy_female"],"text":"За последние 10 лет (2013–2023): продолжительность жизни мужчин 76,4 года → 76,9 года; продолжительность жизни женщин 81,2 года → 81,8 года.","data":{"focus":"life_expectancy_male","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":76.4,"end":76.9,"others":[{"id":"life_expectancy_female","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":81.2,"end":81.8}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"Связь между показателями","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["life_expectancy_male","life_expectancy_female"],"text":"Продолжительность жизни мужчин и продолжительность жизни женщин (1950–2023, 74 года): уровни сильно связаны, в одну сторону (r = 0,97); годовые изменения тоже связаны (r = 0,95). Изменения совпадают и год к году — это больше, чем общий тренд.","data":{"a":"life_expectancy_male","b":"life_expectancy_female","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.974,"r_changes":0.949,"effective_pairs_changes":54,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Прогнозы против факта","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["life_expectancy_male"],"source":"wpp","text":"Продолжительность жизни мужчин: прошлые прогнозы ООН. Факт выше прогноза ни в одном из 12 выпусков (1998–2022), ниже — в 12; медианная разница −2,3 года. Сильнее всего ошибся выпуск 2008 года: ждал на 2020–2025 78,7 года, вышло 75,1 года (за прошедшие годы периода).","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":76.75,"actual":75.1286,"gap":-1.621,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":77.97,"actual":75.1286,"gap":-2.841,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":76.01,"actual":75.1286,"gap":-0.881,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":76.94,"actual":75.1286,"gap":-1.811,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":77.37,"actual":75.1286,"gap":-2.241,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":78.71,"actual":75.1286,"gap":-3.581,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":77.53,"actual":75.1286,"gap":-2.401,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":78.2,"actual":75.1286,"gap":-3.071,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":78.14,"actual":75.1286,"gap":-3.011,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":78.24,"actual":75.1286,"gap":-3.111,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":76.61,"actual":75.1286,"gap":-1.481,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":77.271,"actual":76.9,"gap":-0.371,"unit":"years","coverage":1}],"actual_higher":0,"actual_lower":12,"median_gap":-2.321,"unit":"years","worst":{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":78.71,"actual":75.1286,"gap":-3.581,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},"gap":"actual − expected in the indicator unit; the latest checked period of each revision; coverage < 1: the period is not over and is compared with the years so far"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["life_expectancy_male"],"source":"wpp","text":"Продолжительность жизни мужчин: прогноз ООН-2024 (средний вариант): 2030 — 78,1 года, 2050 — 81,5 года, 2100 — 87,8 года.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","values":{"2030":78.1,"2050":81.5,"2100":87.8}}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["life_expectancy_female"],"source":"wpp","text":"Продолжительность жизни женщин: прошлые прогнозы ООН. Факт выше прогноза ни в одном из 12 выпусков (1998–2022), ниже — в 12; медианная разница −1,9 года. Сильнее всего ошибся выпуск 2000 года: ждал на 2020–2025 83,3 года, вышло 80,6 года (за прошедшие годы периода).","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":82.56,"actual":80.5571,"gap":-2.003,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":83.3,"actual":80.5571,"gap":-2.743,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":82.18,"actual":80.5571,"gap":-1.623,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":82.29,"actual":80.5571,"gap":-1.733,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":82.72,"actual":80.5571,"gap":-2.163,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":83.2,"actual":80.5571,"gap":-2.643,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":82.66,"actual":80.5571,"gap":-2.103,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":82.49,"actual":80.5571,"gap":-1.933,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":82.48,"actual":80.5571,"gap":-1.923,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":82.5,"actual":80.5571,"gap":-1.943,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":81.65,"actual":80.5571,"gap":-1.093,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":82.233,"actual":81.8,"gap":-0.433,"unit":"years","coverage":1}],"actual_higher":0,"actual_lower":12,"median_gap":-1.938,"unit":"years","worst":{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":83.3,"actual":80.5571,"gap":-2.743,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},"gap":"actual − expected in the indicator unit; the latest checked period of each revision; coverage < 1: the period is not over and is compared with the years so far"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["life_expectancy_female"],"source":"wpp","text":"Продолжительность жизни женщин: прогноз ООН-2024 (средний вариант): 2030 — 82,7 года, 2050 — 85,1 года, 2100 — 90,7 года.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","values":{"2030":82.7,"2050":85.1,"2100":90.7}}}]}],"caveat":"Совпадение по времени не доказывает причину: на показатели действует много общего — доходы, города, образование, сама эпоха. Наблюдения подсказывают, куда смотреть, а не что чем вызвано.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/ru/chart/?c=USA&i=life_expectancy_male,life_expectancy_female&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text — готовая формулировка с числами; data — те же числа для расчётов. Первый показатель — главный: с ним сравниваются остальные. Связь проверяется по уровням (r) и по изменениям год к году (r_changes: из изменений убран их линейный тренд, значимость с поправкой на автокорреляцию); lag — сдвиг, при котором изменения совпадают лучше. Ошибки ООН: факт / прогноз − 1 для населения, рождений и рождаемости, факт − прогноз для миграции, продолжительности жизни и возраста матери; МВФ: факт − прогноз. view_url открывает тот же вид на сайте."}