{"locations":[{"code":"USA","name":"United States","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/united-states/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"life_expectancy_male","title":"Life expectancy at birth, men","unit":"years"},{"id":"life_expectancy_female","title":"Life expectancy at birth, women","unit":"years"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["life_expectancy_male"],"text":"Life expectancy, men: 65.4 years in 1950 → 76.9 years in 2023 (+12 years). Threshold: above 70 years since 1979. The trend broke around 1968 and 2012: +0.07 → +0.22 → −0.13 a year.","data":{"indicator":"life_expectancy_male","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":65.4,"last":76.9,"thresholds":[{"threshold":70,"year":1979,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1968,"slope_before":0.0727,"slope_after":0.216},{"year":2012,"slope_before":0.216,"slope_after":-0.126}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["life_expectancy_female"],"text":"Life expectancy, women: 71 years in 1950 → 81.8 years in 2023 (+11 years). Threshold: above 80 years since 2022. The trend broke around 1983 and 2014: +0.2 → +0.11 → −0.06 a year.","data":{"indicator":"life_expectancy_female","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":71,"last":81.8,"thresholds":[{"threshold":80,"year":2022,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1983,"slope_before":0.204,"slope_after":0.107},{"year":2014,"slope_before":0.107,"slope_after":-0.0602}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["life_expectancy_male","life_expectancy_female"],"text":"The fastest rise of \"Life expectancy, men\" was in 1973–1983: 67.6 years → 71 years. Over the same years: life expectancy, women 75.3 years → 78.1 years.","data":{"focus":"life_expectancy_male","from":1973,"to":1983,"start":67.6,"end":71,"others":[{"id":"life_expectancy_female","from":1973,"to":1983,"start":75.3,"end":78.1}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["life_expectancy_male","life_expectancy_female"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): life expectancy, men 76.4 years → 76.9 years; life expectancy, women 81.2 years → 81.8 years.","data":{"focus":"life_expectancy_male","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":76.4,"end":76.9,"others":[{"id":"life_expectancy_female","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":81.2,"end":81.8}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["life_expectancy_male","life_expectancy_female"],"text":"Life expectancy, men and life expectancy, women (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.97); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.95). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"life_expectancy_male","b":"life_expectancy_female","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.974,"r_changes":0.949,"effective_pairs_changes":54,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["life_expectancy_male"],"source":"wpp","text":"Life expectancy, men: past UN projections. The outcome was above the projection in none of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and below in 12; median difference −2.3 years. The biggest miss: the 2008 revision expected 78.7 years for 2020–2025; the outcome was 75.1 years (for the years of the period so far).","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":76.75,"actual":75.1286,"gap":-1.621,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":77.97,"actual":75.1286,"gap":-2.841,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":76.01,"actual":75.1286,"gap":-0.881,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":76.94,"actual":75.1286,"gap":-1.811,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":77.37,"actual":75.1286,"gap":-2.241,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":78.71,"actual":75.1286,"gap":-3.581,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":77.53,"actual":75.1286,"gap":-2.401,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":78.2,"actual":75.1286,"gap":-3.071,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":78.14,"actual":75.1286,"gap":-3.011,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":78.24,"actual":75.1286,"gap":-3.111,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":76.61,"actual":75.1286,"gap":-1.481,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":77.271,"actual":76.9,"gap":-0.371,"unit":"years","coverage":1}],"actual_higher":0,"actual_lower":12,"median_gap":-2.321,"unit":"years","worst":{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":78.71,"actual":75.1286,"gap":-3.581,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},"gap":"actual − expected in the indicator unit; the latest checked period of each revision; coverage < 1: the period is not over and is compared with the years so far"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["life_expectancy_male"],"source":"wpp","text":"Life expectancy, men: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2030 — 78.1 years, 2050 — 81.5 years, 2100 — 87.8 years.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","values":{"2030":78.1,"2050":81.5,"2100":87.8}}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["life_expectancy_female"],"source":"wpp","text":"Life expectancy, women: past UN projections. The outcome was above the projection in none of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and below in 12; median difference −1.9 years. The biggest miss: the 2000 revision expected 83.3 years for 2020–2025; the outcome was 80.6 years (for the years of the period so far).","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":82.56,"actual":80.5571,"gap":-2.003,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":83.3,"actual":80.5571,"gap":-2.743,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":82.18,"actual":80.5571,"gap":-1.623,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":82.29,"actual":80.5571,"gap":-1.733,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":82.72,"actual":80.5571,"gap":-2.163,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":83.2,"actual":80.5571,"gap":-2.643,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":82.66,"actual":80.5571,"gap":-2.103,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":82.49,"actual":80.5571,"gap":-1.933,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":82.48,"actual":80.5571,"gap":-1.923,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":82.5,"actual":80.5571,"gap":-1.943,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":81.65,"actual":80.5571,"gap":-1.093,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":82.233,"actual":81.8,"gap":-0.433,"unit":"years","coverage":1}],"actual_higher":0,"actual_lower":12,"median_gap":-1.938,"unit":"years","worst":{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":83.3,"actual":80.5571,"gap":-2.743,"unit":"years","coverage":0.7},"gap":"actual − expected in the indicator unit; the latest checked period of each revision; coverage < 1: the period is not over and is compared with the years so far"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["life_expectancy_female"],"source":"wpp","text":"Life expectancy, women: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2030 — 82.7 years, 2050 — 85.1 years, 2100 — 90.7 years.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","values":{"2030":82.7,"2050":85.1,"2100":90.7}}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=USA&i=life_expectancy_male,life_expectancy_female&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}