{"locations":[{"code":"un-900","name":"World","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/world/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"},{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 11,275 PPP dollars in 1990 → 21,914 PPP dollars in 2025 (+94%). The trend broke around 1998: change sped up (+109 → +356 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":11275.134,"last":21913.5095,"breaks":[{"year":1998,"slope_before":109,"slope_after":356}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 4.85 in 1950 → 2.25 in 2023 (−54%). Peak: 5.31 in 1963; the latest value is 58% lower. The trend broke around 1965 and 1993: +0.01 → −0.07 → −0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":4.852,"last":2.251,"peak":{"year":1963,"value":5.308},"breaks":[{"year":1965,"slope_before":0.00829,"slope_after":-0.0745},{"year":1993,"slope_before":-0.0745,"slope_after":-0.02}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp","tfr"],"text":"The fastest rise of \"GDP per person (PPP)\" was in 2009–2019: 15,457 PPP dollars → 19,551 PPP dollars. Over the same years: fertility (TFR) 2.62 → 2.40.","data":{"focus":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2009,"to":2019,"start":15456.5925,"end":19551.0854,"others":[{"id":"tfr","from":2009,"to":2019,"start":2.621,"end":2.397}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp","tfr"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): GDP per person (PPP) 17,871 PPP dollars → 21,914 PPP dollars; fertility (TFR) 2.54 (2015).","data":{"focus":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":17870.9797,"end":21913.5095,"others":[{"id":"tfr","year":2015,"value":2.537}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp","tfr"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP) and fertility (TFR) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.91); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.36).","data":{"a":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","b":"tfr","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.907,"r_changes":0.365,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 3 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 8; median gap +2.1%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.292,"actual":2.4607,"gap_pct":7.36},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.435,"actual":2.4607,"gap_pct":1.06},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.411,"actual":2.4607,"gap_pct":2.06},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.384,"actual":2.4607,"gap_pct":3.22},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.372,"actual":2.4607,"gap_pct":3.74},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.397,"actual":2.4607,"gap_pct":2.66},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.389,"actual":2.4607,"gap_pct":3},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.45,"actual":2.4607,"gap_pct":0.44},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.472,"actual":2.4607,"gap_pct":-0.46},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.474,"actual":2.4607,"gap_pct":-0.54},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.312,"actual":2.251,"gap_pct":-2.64}],"actual_lower":3,"actual_higher":8,"median_gap_pct":2.06,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (2.25) already around 2020: reality is 3 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.251,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2020,"year_expected_by":null,"years":3,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2008 projection expected today's level (2.25, 2023) only by 2025–2030: reality is at least 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2008","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.251,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"year_expected_by":2030,"years":2,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.10 (−7% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.84 (−18% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.36.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.251},"values":{"2050":2.097,"2100":1.838},"low_2100":1.364}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=WLD&i=gdp_per_capita_ppp,tfr&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}