{"locations":[{"code":"un-900","name":"World","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/world/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"gdp_growth","title":"Real GDP growth","unit":"% per year"},{"id":"inflation","title":"Inflation","unit":"% per year, average"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_growth"],"text":"GDP growth: on average 3.2% in the 1980s, 3.0% in the 1990s, 3.7% in the 2000s, 3.7% in the 2010s, 3.0% in the 2020s. Lowest: −2.7% in 2020; highest: 6.7% in 2021.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_growth","from":1980,"to":2025,"first":2.218,"last":3.441,"decades":[{"decade":1980,"mean":3.185,"years":10},{"decade":1990,"mean":3.031,"years":10},{"decade":2000,"mean":3.711,"years":10},{"decade":2010,"mean":3.679,"years":10},{"decade":2020,"mean":2.984,"years":6}],"min":{"year":2020,"value":-2.707},"max":{"year":2021,"value":6.653}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["inflation"],"text":"Inflation: on average 15.5% in the 1980s, 19.7% in the 1990s, 4.2% in the 2000s, 3.5% in the 2010s, 5.6% in the 2020s. Lowest: 2.6% in 2009; highest: 39.8% in 1993.","data":{"indicator":"inflation","from":1980,"to":2025,"first":17.249,"last":4.133,"decades":[{"decade":1980,"mean":15.492,"years":10},{"decade":1990,"mean":19.687,"years":10},{"decade":2000,"mean":4.207,"years":10},{"decade":2010,"mean":3.521,"years":10},{"decade":2020,"mean":5.562,"years":6}],"min":{"year":2009,"value":2.641},"max":{"year":1993,"value":39.763}}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["gdp_growth","inflation"],"text":"GDP growth and inflation (1980–2025, 46 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.17); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.00).","data":{"a":"gdp_growth","b":"inflation","from":1980,"to":2025,"years":46,"r_levels":-0.173,"r_changes":-0.003,"effective_pairs_changes":45,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["gdp_growth"],"source":"weo","text":"GDP growth: IMF next-year forecasts (36 editions, 2007–2024). On average the outcome was 0.6 pp below the forecast; below it in 67% of cases; typical error ±1.2 pp. The biggest miss was for 2020: IMF, April 2019 expected 3.6%, the outcome was −2.7%.","data":{"horizon_years":1,"forecasts":36,"editions":36,"mean_error":-0.617,"mean_abs_error":1.202,"share_actual_below":0.67,"error":"actual − forecast, percentage points","worst":{"release":"weo2019-04","year":2020,"expected":3.609,"actual":-2.707,"error":-6.32}}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["gdp_growth"],"source":"weo","text":"GDP growth: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2026 — 3.1%, 2028 — 3.2%, 2031 — 3.1%.","data":{"release":"weo2026-04","values":{"2026":3.056,"2027":3.224,"2028":3.24,"2029":3.161,"2030":3.074,"2031":3.071}}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["inflation"],"source":"weo","text":"Inflation: IMF next-year forecasts (36 editions, 2007–2024). On average the outcome was 0.6 pp above the forecast; below it in 44% of cases; typical error ±1.1 pp. The biggest miss was for 2022: IMF, April 2021 expected 3.2%, the outcome was 8.7%.","data":{"horizon_years":1,"forecasts":36,"editions":36,"mean_error":0.556,"mean_abs_error":1.064,"share_actual_below":0.44,"error":"actual − forecast, percentage points","worst":{"release":"weo2021-04","year":2022,"expected":3.24,"actual":8.674,"error":5.43}}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["inflation"],"source":"weo","text":"Inflation: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2026 — 4.4%, 2028 — 3.4%, 2031 — 3.2%.","data":{"release":"weo2026-04","values":{"2026":4.423,"2027":3.656,"2028":3.364,"2029":3.216,"2030":3.202,"2031":3.201}}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=WLD&i=gdp_growth,inflation&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}