{"locations":[{"code":"CHN","name":"China","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/china/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"gdp_growth","title":"Real GDP growth","unit":"% per year"},{"id":"electricity_demand_growth","title":"Electricity demand growth","unit":"% per year"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_growth"],"text":"GDP growth: on average 9.8% in the 1980s, 10.1% in the 1990s, 10.4% in the 2000s, 7.7% in the 2010s, 4.9% in the 2020s. Lowest: 2.3% in 2020; highest: 15.2% in 1984.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_growth","from":1980,"to":2025,"first":7.91,"last":4.959,"decades":[{"decade":1980,"mean":9.751,"years":10},{"decade":1990,"mean":10.14,"years":10},{"decade":2000,"mean":10.368,"years":10},{"decade":2010,"mean":7.666,"years":10},{"decade":2020,"mean":4.891,"years":6}],"min":{"year":2020,"value":2.337},"max":{"year":1984,"value":15.2}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["electricity_demand_growth"],"text":"Electricity demand growth: on average 9.2% in the 1980s, 7.8% in the 1990s, 11.6% in the 2000s, 7.3% in the 2010s, 5.9% in the 2020s. Lowest: 0.3% in 2015; highest: 15.7% in 2003.","data":{"indicator":"electricity_demand_growth","from":1986,"to":2025,"first":9.457,"last":4.779,"decades":[{"decade":1980,"mean":9.245,"years":4},{"decade":1990,"mean":7.843,"years":10},{"decade":2000,"mean":11.622,"years":10},{"decade":2010,"mean":7.304,"years":10},{"decade":2020,"mean":5.873,"years":6}],"min":{"year":2015,"value":0.286},"max":{"year":2003,"value":15.655}}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["gdp_growth","electricity_demand_growth"],"text":"GDP growth and electricity demand growth (1986–2025, 40 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.67); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.59). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"gdp_growth","b":"electricity_demand_growth","from":1986,"to":2025,"years":40,"r_levels":0.668,"r_changes":0.593,"effective_pairs_changes":36,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["gdp_growth"],"source":"weo","text":"GDP growth: IMF next-year forecasts (36 editions, 2007–2024). On average the outcome was 0.2 pp below the forecast; below it in 50% of cases; typical error ±0.9 pp. The biggest miss was for 2020: IMF, April 2019 expected 6.1%, the outcome was 2.3%.","data":{"horizon_years":1,"forecasts":36,"editions":36,"mean_error":-0.195,"mean_abs_error":0.901,"share_actual_below":0.5,"error":"actual − forecast, percentage points","worst":{"release":"weo2019-04","year":2020,"expected":6.119,"actual":2.337,"error":-3.78}}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["gdp_growth"],"source":"weo","text":"GDP growth: latest IMF forecast (IMF, April 2026): 2026 — 4.4%, 2028 — 4%, 2031 — 3.3%.","data":{"release":"weo2026-04","values":{"2026":4.413,"2027":4.033,"2028":4,"2029":3.665,"2030":3.348,"2031":3.291}}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=CHN&i=gdp_growth,electricity_demand_growth&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}