{"locations":[{"code":"SYR","name":"Syria","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/syria/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"conflict_deaths","title":"Deaths in organised violence","unit":"persons a year"},{"id":"refugees_from","title":"Refugees from the country","unit":"thousand persons, end of year"},{"id":"population","title":"Population","unit":"thousand persons, 1 July"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["conflict_deaths"],"text":"Deaths in conflicts: on average 0 deaths in the 1990s, 1 deaths in the 2000s, 39,826 deaths in the 2010s, 3,100 deaths in the 2020s.","data":{"indicator":"conflict_deaths","from":1989,"to":2025,"first":0,"last":3449,"decades":[{"decade":1990,"mean":0,"years":10},{"decade":2000,"mean":1,"years":10},{"decade":2010,"mean":39826.2,"years":10},{"decade":2020,"mean":3099.667,"years":6}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["refugees_from"],"text":"Refugees from the country: 1.2k in 1968, 4.87M in 2025. Peak: 6.85M in 2021; the latest value is 29% lower. The trend broke around 2011 and 2017: +0.44k → +1.15M → −151k a year.","data":{"indicator":"refugees_from","from":1968,"to":2025,"first":1.2,"last":4865.764,"peak":{"year":2021,"value":6848.865},"breaks":[{"year":2011,"slope_before":0.441,"slope_after":1150},{"year":2017,"slope_before":1150,"slope_after":-151}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["population"],"text":"Population: 3.61M in 1950 → 23.6M in 2023 (×6.5). The trend broke around 1980 and 2010: +175k → +432k → −16.6k a year.","data":{"indicator":"population","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":3612,"last":23595,"breaks":[{"year":1980,"slope_before":175,"slope_after":432},{"year":2010,"slope_before":432,"slope_after":-16.6}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["conflict_deaths","refugees_from"],"text":"Deaths in conflicts and refugees from the country (1989–2025, 37 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.37); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.20).","data":{"a":"conflict_deaths","b":"refugees_from","from":1989,"to":2025,"years":37,"r_levels":0.369,"r_changes":0.202,"effective_pairs_changes":17,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["conflict_deaths","population"],"text":"Deaths in conflicts and population (1989–2023, 35 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.33); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.19).","data":{"a":"conflict_deaths","b":"population","from":1989,"to":2023,"years":35,"r_levels":0.328,"r_changes":-0.191,"effective_pairs_changes":15,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["population"],"source":"wpp","text":"Population: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 9 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 3; median gap −9%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":25601.265,"actual":23595,"gap_pct":-7.84},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":26654.806,"actual":23595,"gap_pct":-11.48},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":26235.619,"actual":23595,"gap_pct":-10.07},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":27279.887,"actual":23595,"gap_pct":-13.51},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":26759.509,"actual":23595,"gap_pct":-11.83},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":27747.953,"actual":23595,"gap_pct":-14.97},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":25240.032,"actual":23595,"gap_pct":-6.52},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":27120.387,"actual":23595,"gap_pct":-13},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":23754.043,"actual":23595,"gap_pct":-0.67},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":21475.277,"actual":23595,"gap_pct":9.87},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":20638.284,"actual":23595,"gap_pct":14.33},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":23227.014,"actual":23595,"gap_pct":1.58}],"actual_lower":9,"actual_higher":3,"median_gap_pct":-8.96,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["population"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (23.6M) already around 2017: reality is 6 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":23595,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2017,"year_expected_by":null,"years":6,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["population"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (23.6M, 2023) only by 2024: reality is at least 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":23595,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"year_expected_by":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["population"],"source":"wpp","text":"Population: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 37.8M (+60% vs 2023), 2100 — 43.7M (+85% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 29.5M.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":23595},"values":{"2050":37793,"2100":43687},"low_2100":29517}},{"kind":"forecast_split","indicators":["population"],"source":"wpp","text":"Why the UN missed the population. The 1998 projection for 2023: 25.6M; the UN's 2024 estimate: 23.6M (−7.8%). Parts of the gap (plus means more people than projected): the starting population +417k, births +660k, deaths −407k (more deaths than expected), migration −2.67M; the largest: migration.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","base_year":1995,"year":2023,"expected":25601.3,"actual":23595,"gap":-2006.3,"gap_pct":-7.84,"start":417.1,"births":659.5,"deaths":-407,"migration":-2671.3,"residual":-4.6,"start_expected":14199.9,"start_actual":14617,"births_expected":13797.6,"births_actual":14457.1,"deaths_expected":2373.3,"deaths_actual":2780.3,"migration_expected":-27,"migration_actual":-2698.3,"main":"migration","unit":"thousand persons","note":"gap = start + births + deaths + migration + residual; deaths: minus means more deaths than assumed"}},{"kind":"forecast_split","indicators":["population"],"source":"wpp","text":"Why the UN missed the population. The 2010 projection for 2023: 25.2M; the UN's 2024 estimate: 23.6M (−6.5%). Parts of the gap (plus means more people than projected): the starting population +2.07M, births +32.7k, deaths −576k (more deaths than expected), migration −3.17M; the largest: migration.","data":{"release":"wpp2010","base_year":2010,"year":2023,"expected":25240,"actual":23595,"gap":-1645,"gap_pct":-6.52,"start":2071.4,"births":32.7,"deaths":-575.7,"migration":-3171.8,"residual":-1.7,"start_expected":20410.6,"start_actual":22482,"births_expected":6196.9,"births_actual":6229.6,"deaths_expected":1089.5,"deaths_actual":1665.2,"migration_expected":-280.9,"migration_actual":-3452.7,"main":"migration","unit":"thousand persons","note":"gap = start + births + deaths + migration + residual; deaths: minus means more deaths than assumed"}},{"kind":"cross_source","indicators":["population"],"source":"weo","text":"Population: the IMF and the UN disagree. The IMF (April 2026) puts it at 21.4M in 2010, the UN (WPP 2024) at 22.5M: the IMF is 5% lower. Part of the gap may come from whom and which territory each counts.","data":{"year":2010,"imf_release":"weo2026-04","imf_k":21392.8,"un_k":22482,"gap_pct":-4.84}}]},{"id":"wars","title":"Wars and births","items":[{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1967–1967 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Saudi Arabia, Mongolia, Kuwait, Afghanistan, Niger and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war +0.7%, 1–5 years after it +2.6%, 6–10 years after +5.1%; fertility (children per woman) during the war +0.05, 1–5 years after it +0.16, 6–10 years after +0.28.","data":{"episode":"SYR-1967","kind":"modern","from":1967,"to":1967,"battle_deaths":727,"peers":["SAU","MNG","KWT","AFG","NER","CIV","SEN","LBY","MWI","KEN"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":0.74,"own":0.27,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":2.64,"own":1.24,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":5.14,"own":2.52,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":0.045,"own":0.028,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":0.156,"own":0.058,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":0.284,"own":-0.054,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":0.37,"own":-0.03,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":1.06,"own":0.07,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":1.21,"own":-0.17,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1973–1973 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 4,634 battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Mongolia, Niger, Algeria, Malawi, Zambia and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war −0.2%, 1–5 years after it −0.3%, 6–10 years after −4.9%; fertility (children per woman) during the war −0.03, 1–5 years after it −0.12, 6–10 years after −0.44.","data":{"episode":"SYR-1973","kind":"modern","from":1973,"to":1973,"battle_deaths":4634,"peers":["MNG","NER","DZA","MWI","ZMB","JOR","SEN","MLI","BDI","CIV"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":-0.18,"own":-0.13,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.28,"own":0.19,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-4.88,"own":-3.08,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":-0.025,"own":-0.069,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.121,"own":-0.204,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-0.442,"own":-0.729,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":-0.29,"own":-0.24,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.09,"own":-0.35,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-1.29,"own":-2.16,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1982–1982 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 2,000 battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Jordan, Benin, Zambia, Madagascar, South Sudan and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war −2.8%, 1–5 years after it −3.4%, 6–10 years after −8.8%; fertility (children per woman) during the war −0.18, 1–5 years after it −0.26, 6–10 years after −0.54.","data":{"episode":"SYR-1982","kind":"modern","from":1982,"to":1982,"battle_deaths":2000,"peers":["JOR","BEN","ZMB","MDG","SSD","GNB","SWZ","GIN","MWI","CIV"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":-2.76,"own":-2.78,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-3.39,"own":-2.95,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-8.8,"own":-9.31,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":-0.177,"own":-0.216,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.256,"own":-0.376,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-0.536,"own":-0.968,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":-1.03,"own":-1.14,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.78,"own":-1.23,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-2.19,"own":-3.62,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 2011–2024 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 344 thousand battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Laos, Guatemala, Eswatini, Lesotho, Oman and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war −40%; fertility (children per woman) during the war −0.16. The war lasted more than 10 years: its first 10 years are compared, the years after it are not (the pre-war trend is too old).","data":{"episode":"SYR-2011","kind":"modern","from":2011,"to":2024,"battle_deaths":343519,"peers":["LAO","GTM","SWZ","LSO","OMN","BOL","BWA","TKM","HND","SAU"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":-40.37,"own":-39.88,"years":10}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":-0.163,"own":0.068,"years":10}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":-5.6,"own":-5.51,"years":10}}}}},{"kind":"war_births_all","indicators":["births"],"source":"wars","text":"All wars together: of 101 wars on countries' territory since 1955, births 1–5 years after the end were above comparable peace-time countries in 42% of cases (median −1.6%). No significant post-war rise shows up.","data":{"episodes":101,"median_gap_pct":-1.56,"share_above":0.416,"sign_test_p":0.1109}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=SYR&i=conflict_deaths,refugees_from,population&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}