{"locations":[{"code":"FRA","name":"France","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/france/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"births_hist","title":"Births: long series","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"birth_rate_hist","title":"Crude birth rate: long series","unit":"births per 1,000 people a year"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births_hist"],"text":"Births (since the 1700s): 862k in 1950 → 640k in 2023 (−26%). The trend broke around 1997 and 2011: −2.5k → +4.78k → −12k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births_hist","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":862.31,"last":639.533,"breaks":[{"year":1997,"slope_before":-2.5,"slope_after":4.78},{"year":2011,"slope_before":4.78,"slope_after":-12}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["birth_rate_hist"],"text":"Births per 1,000 (since the 1700s): 20.6 per 1,000 in 1950 → 9.7 per 1,000 in 2023 (−53%). The trend broke around 1993 and 2010: −0.17 → +0.02 → −0.22 a year.","data":{"indicator":"birth_rate_hist","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":20.614,"last":9.65,"breaks":[{"year":1993,"slope_before":-0.168,"slope_after":0.0192},{"year":2010,"slope_before":0.0192,"slope_after":-0.218}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["births_hist","birth_rate_hist"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Births (since the 1700s)\" was in 1966–1976: 864k → 720k. Over the same years: births per 1,000 (since the 1700s) 17.6 per 1,000 → 13.6 per 1,000.","data":{"focus":"births_hist","from":1966,"to":1976,"start":863.527,"end":720.395,"others":[{"id":"birth_rate_hist","from":1966,"to":1976,"start":17.566,"end":13.617}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["births_hist","birth_rate_hist"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): births (since the 1700s) 782k → 640k; births per 1,000 (since the 1700s) 12.2 per 1,000 → 9.7 per 1,000.","data":{"focus":"births_hist","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":781.621,"end":639.533,"others":[{"id":"birth_rate_hist","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":12.24,"end":9.65}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["births_hist","birth_rate_hist"],"text":"Births (since the 1700s) and births per 1,000 (since the 1700s) (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.82); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.99). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"births_hist","b":"birth_rate_hist","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.825,"r_changes":0.991,"effective_pairs_changes":42,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"wars","title":"Wars and births","items":[{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1961–1962 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 2,360 battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Finland, Belarus, Austria, Spain, Norway and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war +3.7%, 1–5 years after it +10%, 6–10 years after +22%; fertility (children per woman) during the war +0.19, 1–5 years after it +0.31, 6–10 years after +0.37.","data":{"episode":"FRA-1961","kind":"modern","from":1961,"to":1962,"battle_deaths":2360,"peers":["FIN","BLR","AUT","ESP","NOR","LTU","DNK","BEL","POL","SVK"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":3.74,"own":1.47,"years":2},"p1_5":{"gap":10.4,"own":2.19,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":21.91,"own":1.76,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":0.188,"own":0.119,"years":2},"p1_5":{"gap":0.312,"own":0.134,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":0.374,"own":-0.135,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":0.53,"own":0.3,"years":2},"p1_5":{"gap":2.03,"own":0.5,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":2.53,"own":0.66,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births_all","indicators":["births"],"source":"wars","text":"All wars together: of 101 wars on countries' territory since 1955, births 1–5 years after the end were above comparable peace-time countries in 42% of cases (median −1.6%). No significant post-war rise shows up.","data":{"episodes":101,"median_gap_pct":-1.56,"share_above":0.416,"sign_test_p":0.1109}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=FRA&i=births_hist,birth_rate_hist&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}