{"locations":[{"code":"un-900","name":"World","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/world/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 91.8M in 1950 → 132M in 2023 (+44%). The trend broke around 1985 and 2017: +1.14M → +219k → −2.04M a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":91824,"last":132110,"breaks":[{"year":1985,"slope_before":1140,"slope_after":219},{"year":2017,"slope_before":219,"slope_after":-2040}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 4.85 in 1950 → 2.25 in 2023 (−54%). Peak: 5.31 in 1963; the latest value is 58% lower. The trend broke around 1965 and 1993: +0.01 → −0.07 → −0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":4.852,"last":2.251,"peak":{"year":1963,"value":5.308},"breaks":[{"year":1965,"slope_before":0.00829,"slope_after":-0.0745},{"year":1993,"slope_before":-0.0745,"slope_after":-0.02}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["births","tfr"],"text":"The fastest rise of \"Births\" was in 1961–1971: 101M → 124M. Over the same years: fertility (TFR) 4.57 → 4.68.","data":{"focus":"births","from":1961,"to":1971,"start":100951,"end":123740,"others":[{"id":"tfr","from":1961,"to":1971,"start":4.571,"end":4.679}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["births","tfr"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): births 145M → 132M; fertility (TFR) 2.57 → 2.25.","data":{"focus":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":145015,"end":132110,"others":[{"id":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.572,"end":2.251}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["births","tfr"],"text":"Births and fertility (TFR) (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.85); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.90). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"births","b":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.845,"r_changes":0.899,"effective_pairs_changes":49,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +3.5%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":129555.983,"actual":141382.6,"gap_pct":9.13},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":136228.727,"actual":141382.6,"gap_pct":3.78},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":135474.058,"actual":141382.6,"gap_pct":4.36},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":136557.92,"actual":141382.6,"gap_pct":3.53},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":137419.755,"actual":141382.6,"gap_pct":2.88},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":136471.676,"actual":141382.6,"gap_pct":3.6},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":135396.344,"actual":141382.6,"gap_pct":4.42},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":138963.967,"actual":141382.6,"gap_pct":1.74},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":140625.286,"actual":141382.6,"gap_pct":0.54},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":140891.616,"actual":141382.6,"gap_pct":0.35},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":134279.612,"actual":132110,"gap_pct":-1.62}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":3.53,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 133M (0% vs 2023), 2100 — 110M (−17% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 48.4M.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":132110},"values":{"2050":132555,"2100":110028},"low_2100":48407}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 3 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 8; median gap +2.1%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.292,"actual":2.4607,"gap_pct":7.36},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.435,"actual":2.4607,"gap_pct":1.06},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.411,"actual":2.4607,"gap_pct":2.06},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.384,"actual":2.4607,"gap_pct":3.22},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.372,"actual":2.4607,"gap_pct":3.74},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.397,"actual":2.4607,"gap_pct":2.66},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.389,"actual":2.4607,"gap_pct":3},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.45,"actual":2.4607,"gap_pct":0.44},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.472,"actual":2.4607,"gap_pct":-0.46},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.474,"actual":2.4607,"gap_pct":-0.54},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.312,"actual":2.251,"gap_pct":-2.64}],"actual_lower":3,"actual_higher":8,"median_gap_pct":2.06,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (2.25) already around 2020: reality is 3 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.251,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2020,"year_expected_by":null,"years":3,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2008 projection expected today's level (2.25, 2023) only by 2025–2030: reality is at least 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2008","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.251,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"year_expected_by":2030,"years":2,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.10 (−7% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.84 (−18% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.36.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.251},"values":{"2050":2.097,"2100":1.838},"low_2100":1.364}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=WLD&i=births,tfr&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}