{"locations":[{"code":"BIH","name":"Bosnia and Herzegovina","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/bosnia-herzegovina/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"battle_deaths","title":"Battle deaths","unit":"persons a year"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 101k in 1950 → 24.6k in 2023 (−76%). Peak: 115k in 1954; the latest value is 79% lower. The trend broke around 1962 and 1969: +0.71k → −3.78k → −1.26k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":101.1,"last":24.57,"peak":{"year":1954,"value":114.8},"breaks":[{"year":1962,"slope_before":0.715,"slope_after":-3.78},{"year":1969,"slope_before":-3.78,"slope_after":-1.26}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.07 in 1950 → 1.49 in 2023 (−71%). Low: 1.18 in 2006; +26% since then. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1978, below 1.5 since 2021. The trend broke around 1976 and 2007: −0.11 → −0.03 → +0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.069,"last":1.486,"trough":{"year":2006,"value":1.18},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1978,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2021,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1976,"slope_before":-0.11,"slope_after":-0.0345},{"year":2007,"slope_before":-0.0345,"slope_after":0.0232}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["battle_deaths"],"text":"Battle deaths: on average 0 deaths in the 1950s, 0 deaths in the 1960s, 0 deaths in the 1970s, 0 deaths in the 1980s, 4,987 deaths in the 1990s, 0 deaths in the 2000s, 0 deaths in the 2010s, 0 deaths in the 2020s.","data":{"indicator":"battle_deaths","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":0,"last":0,"decades":[{"decade":1950,"mean":0,"years":10},{"decade":1960,"mean":0,"years":10},{"decade":1970,"mean":0,"years":10},{"decade":1980,"mean":0,"years":10},{"decade":1990,"mean":4987.1,"years":10},{"decade":2000,"mean":0,"years":10},{"decade":2010,"mean":0,"years":10},{"decade":2020,"mean":0,"years":6}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["births","tfr","battle_deaths"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Births\" was in 1985–1995: 76.9k → 39.7k. Over the same years: fertility (TFR) 1.96 → 1.67; battle deaths 0 deaths → 8,855 deaths.","data":{"focus":"births","from":1985,"to":1995,"start":76.86,"end":39.67,"others":[{"id":"tfr","from":1985,"to":1995,"start":1.96,"end":1.669},{"id":"battle_deaths","from":1985,"to":1995,"start":0,"end":8855}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["births","tfr","battle_deaths"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): births 31.5k → 24.6k; fertility (TFR) 1.28 → 1.49; battle deaths 0 deaths → 0 deaths.","data":{"focus":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":31.54,"end":24.57,"others":[{"id":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.278,"end":1.486},{"id":"battle_deaths","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":0,"end":0}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["births","tfr"],"text":"Births and fertility (TFR) (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.91); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.58). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"births","b":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.906,"r_changes":0.576,"effective_pairs_changes":51,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["births","battle_deaths"],"text":"Births and battle deaths (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.10); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.09). Changes line up best when shifted by 1 year: \"Battle deaths\" moves first, then \"Births\" (r = −0.46).","data":{"a":"births","b":"battle_deaths","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.103,"r_changes":0.093,"effective_pairs_changes":73,"changes_significant":false,"lag":{"years":-1,"r":-0.46,"leader":"battle_deaths"}}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (19,800 PPP dollars) typically have 1.96; here it is 1.49, lower than in 86% of countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":19800,"yv":1.486,"expected":1.96,"pct":14,"lower":27,"higher":169,"z":-1.04}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Order of events: fertility below 3: 1969; fertility below 2.1: 1978.","data":{"events":{"tfr3":{"year":1969,"censored":false},"tfr21":{"year":1978,"censored":false}},"orders":[]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 10 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 1; median gap −12%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":43.734,"actual":29.212,"gap_pct":-33.21},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":37.548,"actual":29.212,"gap_pct":-22.2},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":38.462,"actual":29.212,"gap_pct":-24.05},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":34.588,"actual":29.212,"gap_pct":-15.54},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":33.102,"actual":29.212,"gap_pct":-11.75},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":32.293,"actual":29.212,"gap_pct":-9.54},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":28.648,"actual":29.212,"gap_pct":1.97},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":36.297,"actual":29.212,"gap_pct":-19.52},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":31.964,"actual":29.212,"gap_pct":-8.61},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":32.48,"actual":29.212,"gap_pct":-10.06},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":26.279,"actual":24.57,"gap_pct":-6.5}],"actual_lower":10,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-11.75,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection did not expect today's level (24.6k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2050).","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":24.57,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"year_expected_by":null,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (24.6k, 2023) only by 2030: reality is at least 7 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":24.57,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2030,"year_expected_by":2030,"years":7,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 17.5k (−29% vs 2023), 2100 — 9.88k (−60% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 2.74k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":24.57},"values":{"2050":17.5,"2100":9.875},"low_2100":2.736}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +6.3%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.67,"actual":1.4422,"gap_pct":-13.64},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.386,"actual":1.4422,"gap_pct":4.05},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.42,"actual":1.4422,"gap_pct":1.56},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.405,"actual":1.4422,"gap_pct":2.65},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.305,"actual":1.4422,"gap_pct":10.51},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.289,"actual":1.4422,"gap_pct":11.89},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.141,"actual":1.4422,"gap_pct":26.4},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.357,"actual":1.4422,"gap_pct":6.28},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.23,"actual":1.4422,"gap_pct":17.25},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.386,"actual":1.4422,"gap_pct":4.05},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.341,"actual":1.486,"gap_pct":10.81}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":6.28,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected today's level (1.49, 2023) only by 2025–2030: reality is at least 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.486,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"year_expected_by":2030,"years":2,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2017 projection expected today's level (1.49, 2023) only by 2025–2030: reality is at least 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2017","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.486,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"year_expected_by":2030,"years":2,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.57 (+6% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.61 (+8% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.11.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.486},"values":{"2050":1.569,"2100":1.61},"low_2100":1.11}}]},{"id":"wars","title":"Wars and births","items":[{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1992–1995 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 50 thousand battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (France, Ukraine, Finland, Estonia, Belarus and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war −17%, 1–5 years after it −5.1%, 6–10 years after −8.3%; fertility (children per woman) during the war +0.28, 1–5 years after it +0.46, 6–10 years after +0.27.","data":{"episode":"BIH-1992","kind":"modern","from":1992,"to":1995,"battle_deaths":49871,"peers":["FRA","UKR","FIN","EST","BLR","CZE","LVA","HUN","DNK","BEL"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":-17.42,"own":-24.38,"years":4},"p1_5":{"gap":-5.08,"own":-23.69,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-8.3,"own":-23.88,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":0.284,"own":0.05,"years":4},"p1_5":{"gap":0.462,"own":0.003,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":0.271,"own":-0.112,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":-0.37,"own":-1.35,"years":4},"p1_5":{"gap":1.18,"own":-0.95,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":1.18,"own":-0.2,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births_all","indicators":["births"],"source":"wars","text":"All wars together: of 101 wars on countries' territory since 1955, births 1–5 years after the end were above comparable peace-time countries in 42% of cases (median −1.6%). No significant post-war rise shows up.","data":{"episodes":101,"median_gap_pct":-1.56,"share_above":0.416,"sign_test_p":0.1109}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=BIH&i=births,tfr,battle_deaths&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}