{"locations":[{"code":"KOR","name":"South Korea","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/south-korea/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"marriages","title":"Marriages","unit":"thousand marriages a year"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 785k in 1950 → 254k in 2025 (−68%). Peak: 1.1M in 1960; the latest value is 77% lower. The trend broke around 1959: direction reversed (+34.4k → −12.8k a year).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":784.8,"last":254.341,"peak":{"year":1960,"value":1099},"breaks":[{"year":1959,"slope_before":34.4,"slope_after":-12.8}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["marriages"],"text":"Marriages: 295k in 1970 → 240k in 2025 (−19%). Peak: 435k in 1996; the latest value is 45% lower. The trend broke around 1981 and 1992: +14.2k → +2.31k → −6.03k a year.","data":{"indicator":"marriages","from":1970,"to":2025,"first":295.137,"last":240.326,"peak":{"year":1996,"value":434.911},"breaks":[{"year":1981,"slope_before":14.2,"slope_after":2.31},{"year":1992,"slope_before":2.31,"slope_after":-6.03}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["births","marriages"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Births\" was in 1995–2005: 693k → 433k. Over the same years: marriages 398k → 314k.","data":{"focus":"births","from":1995,"to":2005,"start":692.8,"end":432.8,"others":[{"id":"marriages","from":1995,"to":2005,"start":398.484,"end":314.304}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["births","marriages"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): births 425k → 254k; marriages 303k → 240k.","data":{"focus":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":424.8,"end":254.341,"others":[{"id":"marriages","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":302.828,"end":240.326}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["births","marriages"],"text":"Births and marriages (1970–2025, 56 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.49); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.33).","data":{"a":"births","b":"marriages","from":1970,"to":2025,"years":56,"r_levels":0.489,"r_changes":0.325,"effective_pairs_changes":41,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −46%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":593.421,"actual":249.2831,"gap_pct":-57.99},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":567.501,"actual":249.2831,"gap_pct":-56.07},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":468.531,"actual":249.2831,"gap_pct":-46.79},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":423.213,"actual":249.2831,"gap_pct":-41.1},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":391.307,"actual":249.2831,"gap_pct":-36.29},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":416.564,"actual":249.2831,"gap_pct":-40.16},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":479.96,"actual":249.2831,"gap_pct":-48.06},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":473.362,"actual":249.2831,"gap_pct":-47.34},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":457.219,"actual":249.2831,"gap_pct":-45.48},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":457.575,"actual":249.2831,"gap_pct":-45.52},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":347.262,"actual":249.2831,"gap_pct":-28.21},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":294.491,"actual":254.341,"gap_pct":-13.63}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-45.5,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2004 projection did not expect today's level (254k, 2025) before its horizon ended (2050).","data":{"release":"wpp2004","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":254.341,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"year_expected_by":null,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2017 projection did not expect today's level (254k, 2025) before its horizon ended (2100).","data":{"release":"wpp2017","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":254.341,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"year_expected_by":null,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2025: 254k, 3% above the UN 2024 medium variant (246k).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"final","un_medium_births_k":245.9,"actual_births_k":254.341,"gap_pct":3.4,"un_lower95_births_k":180.3,"below_lower95":false,"source":"National Data Office (국가데이터처, formerly Statistics Korea), '2025 Birth Statistics' (final), released 2026-08-26, Table 1 and appendix table 1","source_url":"https://eiec.kdi.re.kr/policy/materialView.do?num=285815"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 211k (−17% vs 2025), 2100 — 119k (−53% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 31.8k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":254.341},"values":{"2050":211.3,"2100":119.2},"low_2100":31.82}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=KOR&i=births,marriages&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}